My Election Predictions

Here’s what we know at of 3pm today.  Turnout is massive.  Some counties in battleground states are projecting 80% turnout of potential voters.  Turnout may be higher than even the campaigns anticipated.

I have felt for some time that Obama would crush McCain in this election.  While I’m nervous as hell as far back as August 24th I said Obama would win the popular vote by 10 percentage points.  I will stand by this:

Popular Vote:  55-45.

Electoral College:  381-147.

Since they were both nominated in June, I always thought Obama was a much more compelling figure to the vast majority of Americans.   With the exception of the 35% hardcore Republican base.  My view is turnout simply won’t be strong enough in this group.  There is no Karl Rove.  Obama has a staggeringly better, more passionate organization.

Nobody really has said Obama will absolutely destroy McCain in popular vote or electoral vote.  But I think it’s possible he could win every swing state that’s up for grabs with the exception of Indiana and Arizona.  I have trouble seeing how he wins in those states, but we’ll see.  This means I give him North Carolina, Florida and Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada,  which would be quite surprising.  I also think he will upset McCain in Georgia in Montana.

Look, let’s face it.  The country is desperate for new leadership.  There have been many signs that Obama should destroy McCain today.  Hugely energized volunteers, massive financial advantages, market meltdown, and the rallies.  Yesterday Obama was drawing 75,000 to 90,000 people.  McCain was drawing 5,000.  The mainstream media clearly supports Obama.  They try to remain objective, but it’s obvious they have fallen in love like the rest of us.

I admit I’m nervous, but I’m also confident.  This will be an Obama day.  The challenge will be the burden of expectations he faces in a brutally recessionary climate.

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3 Responses

  1. I haven’t done all the math but if we take out the close states–Fla, NC, Va, Ohio, Mo, Ind– (I think I have them all)your percentages in all probability are too low on the 55-45 factor. Big states–NY, Calif, Ill will add to the percentages. We can add in the states McCain won, and he won them substantially (except for Mo) and see what the outcome is. Of course in a country as large as ours even 52.5 or so for Obama is lots of votes an unambiguous win.

  2. Well this isn’t really the way i workst. I came up a bit short because the Republican turnout was substantially better than I anticipated (especially in georgia which was not close). I also thought Obama would win Montana and Missouri. Still all in all I was fairly close. I understand that 2.5 percentage points is millions of votes, but you have to admit it’s somewhat disconcerting that 47.5 of the people voted for McCain in a disastrous republican year. Could Clinton have won 60% of the vote this year? Perhaps.

  3. The Republican turnout was better than you expected but lower than the Republicans wanted. For example, not much difference between the Obama and Kerry vote in Ohio. McCain’s was 300,000 fewer than Obama’s.
    Obama did worse than Kerry in places such as Ark, Tenn, Louisiana, Alabama and Miss among whites, West Va. That’s his challenge: to modify people views in those places.

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