Here’s what we know at of 3pm today. Turnout is massive. Some counties in battleground states are projecting 80% turnout of potential voters. Turnout may be higher than even the campaigns anticipated.
I have felt for some time that Obama would crush McCain in this election. While I’m nervous as hell as far back as August 24th I said Obama would win the popular vote by 10 percentage points. I will stand by this:
Popular Vote: 55-45.
Electoral College: 381-147.
Since they were both nominated in June, I always thought Obama was a much more compelling figure to the vast majority of Americans. With the exception of the 35% hardcore Republican base. My view is turnout simply won’t be strong enough in this group. There is no Karl Rove. Obama has a staggeringly better, more passionate organization.
Nobody really has said Obama will absolutely destroy McCain in popular vote or electoral vote. But I think it’s possible he could win every swing state that’s up for grabs with the exception of Indiana and Arizona. I have trouble seeing how he wins in those states, but we’ll see. This means I give him North Carolina, Florida and Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, which would be quite surprising. I also think he will upset McCain in Georgia in Montana.
Look, let’s face it. The country is desperate for new leadership. There have been many signs that Obama should destroy McCain today. Hugely energized volunteers, massive financial advantages, market meltdown, and the rallies. Yesterday Obama was drawing 75,000 to 90,000 people. McCain was drawing 5,000. The mainstream media clearly supports Obama. They try to remain objective, but it’s obvious they have fallen in love like the rest of us.
I admit I’m nervous, but I’m also confident. This will be an Obama day. The challenge will be the burden of expectations he faces in a brutally recessionary climate.